A Prognostic Model to Facilitate Palliative Care Referral in Oncology Outpatients

Yu Jung Kim, Yusuke Hiratsuka, Sang Yeon Suh, Beodeul Kang, Si Won Lee, Hong Yup Ahn, Koung Jin Suh, Ji Won Kim, Se Hyun Kim, Jin Won Kim, Keun Wook Lee, Jee Hyun Kim, Jong Seok Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Purpose We aimed to develop a prognostic model to assist palliative care referral at least 3 months before death in advanced cancer patients treated at an outpatient medical oncology clinic. Materials and Methods In this prospective cohort study, a total of 200 patients were enrolled at a tertiary cancer center in South Korea. The major eligibility criterion was an expected survival of less than a year as estimated by their oncologists. We analyzed the influences of known prognostic factors along with chemotherapy status, mid-arm circumference, and triceps skinfold thickness on survival time. Results The mean age of the patients was 64.5 years, 36% were female, and the median survival time was 7.6 months. In the multivariate analysis, we found six significant factors related to poor survival: a poor Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (≥ 2), not undergoing chemotherapy, anorexia, a low lymphocyte level (< 12%), a high lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level (≥ 300 IU/L), and a low mid-arm circumference (< 23 cm). We developed a prognostic model (score, 0-8.0) to predict 3-month survival based on the multivariate analysis. Patients who scored ≥ 4.0 points had a short survival of less than 3 months (p < 0.001). The discriminating ability of the prognostic model using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88. Conclusion The prognostic model using ECOG performance status, chemotherapy status, anorexia, lymphocytes, LDH, and mid-arm circumference can predict 3-month survival in medical oncology outpatients. It can alert oncologists to refer patients to palliative care specialists before it is too late.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)621-629
Number of pages9
JournalCancer Research and Treatment
Volume54
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2022

Keywords

  • Neoplasms
  • Palliative care
  • Prognosis
  • Survival

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A Prognostic Model to Facilitate Palliative Care Referral in Oncology Outpatients'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this