A study on late-developer country's decision on optimal entry timing in emerging industry under global value chain: Using a-u model of technological development

To catch up first mover countries and to grow fast in emerging industries is an urgent issue in strategic choices for late-developer country especially when its innovation ability is in yet weak level. But if the late-developer country can choose proper or optimal timing to enter, it also can catch up first movers quickly and become dominant in an emerging industry. In this regard, this study starts from the perspective of global value chain, based on late-developer advantage theory, compares the advantage and disadvantage of late developer country facing in different stages of technology evolution. We show that strong country can enter emerging industry in the early stage. It can exploit open innovative capability, accumulate technological catch-up capacity, and to survive in the transition stage. However, weak countries should seize the opportunity of catching up in the transition stage, and make use of the opportunity window of technology trajectory to strengthen the learning and absorptive capacity, and centralize resource to develop key technology in order to surrive in stabilization stage.