Apolipoprotein B and non-HDL cholesterol are more powerful predictors for incident type 2 diabetes than fasting glucose or glycated hemoglobin in subjects with normal glucose tolerance: a 3.3-year retrospective longitudinal study

The association between atherogenic dyslipidemia (AD) and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the low-risk group for T2D has not yet been determined. The aims of this study were to investigate whether AD, characterized by increased serum apoB and non-HDL cholesterol, could predict the development of T2D in subjects with normal glucose tolerance (NGT). A total of 84,394 subjects with NGT (48,906 men and 35,488 women), aged 20–89 years (mean age 38.4 years), were enrolled in this study and were followed for a mean duration of 3.3 years. ApoB and non-HDL cholesterol levels showed stronger associations with the development of T2D compared with conventional lipid measurements and their ratios (HR per 1-SD (95 % CI) 1.27 (1.23–1.30) and 1.27 (1.24–1.29), respectively, both P < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression models, both apoB and non-HDL cholesterol were associated with the development of T2D, independent of other risk factors for T2D, fasting serum glucose, HbA1c, and conventional lipid measurements such as triglycerides and HDL cholesterol (HR per 1-SD (95 % CI) 1.16 (1.11–1.21) and 1.15 (1.11–1.19), respectively, both P < 0.001). However, fasting serum glucose was not associated with the development of T2D in these models. In conclusion, AD was more closely associated with the development of T2D than fasting glucose or glycated hemoglobin in subjects with NGT.