Applicability of patent information in technological forecasting: A sector-specific approach

Byungun Yoon, Sungjoo Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

14 Scopus citations

Abstract

Since the strategies of firms for protecting their innovations could vary between patents and trade secrets according to the characteristics of industries, patent analysis might not always be appropriate for forecasting technological trends in industries. This paper aims to identify relevant industries where patent information can be effectively utilized to scrutinize the trends and effects of technological activities. To this end, first, sectoral differences in patenting activities are explored by analysing the community innovation survey (CIS) data. Second, the applicability of patent trend analysis for technological forecasting is examined in each industry through the S-curve fitting process with patent data. Finally, correlation analysis between R&D data (R&D investment and loyalty income) and patent application data is performed to demonstrate the explanatory power of patent information in R&D management, by investigating the relationship between the inputs and outputs of a R&D system. The results of this paper will help support a strategic process for using patent analysis to envisage future trends and comprehend diverse characteristics of a technology.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)37-45
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Intellectual Property Rights
Volume17
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2012

Keywords

  • Patent analysis
  • R&d investment
  • S-curve
  • Sectoral patterns of innovation
  • Technological forecasting

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