TY - JOUR
T1 - Seasonal and Monthly Climate Variability in South Korea’s River Basins
T2 - Insights from a Multi-Model Ensemble Approach
AU - Ghafouri-Azar, Mona
AU - Lee, Sang Il
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 by the authors.
PY - 2024/2
Y1 - 2024/2
N2 - This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change on South Korea’s climate and hydrology, utilizing a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach with thirteen Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We observed an average temperature increase of up to 3.5 °C under RCP8.5 and around 2.0 °C under RCP4.5. Precipitation patterns showed an overall increase, particularly during the summer months, with increases up to 20% under RCP8.5 and 15% under RCP4.5, characterized by more intense and frequent rainfall events. Evapotranspiration rates are projected to rise by approximately 5–10% under RCP8.5 and 3–7% under RCP4.5. Runoff is expected to increase significantly, particularly in the summer and autumn months, with increases up to 25% under RCP8.5 and 18% under RCP4.5. This research focuses on employing the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to project future streamflow across South Korea, with an emphasis on both monthly and seasonal scales to understand the varying impacts of climate change on different river basins. These climatic changes have profound implications for agriculture, urban water management, and ecosystem sustainability, stressing the need for dynamic and region-specific adaptation measures. This study emphasizes the critical role of localized factors, such as topography, land use, and basin-specific characteristics, in influencing the hydrological cycle under changing climatic conditions.
AB - This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change on South Korea’s climate and hydrology, utilizing a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach with thirteen Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We observed an average temperature increase of up to 3.5 °C under RCP8.5 and around 2.0 °C under RCP4.5. Precipitation patterns showed an overall increase, particularly during the summer months, with increases up to 20% under RCP8.5 and 15% under RCP4.5, characterized by more intense and frequent rainfall events. Evapotranspiration rates are projected to rise by approximately 5–10% under RCP8.5 and 3–7% under RCP4.5. Runoff is expected to increase significantly, particularly in the summer and autumn months, with increases up to 25% under RCP8.5 and 18% under RCP4.5. This research focuses on employing the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to project future streamflow across South Korea, with an emphasis on both monthly and seasonal scales to understand the varying impacts of climate change on different river basins. These climatic changes have profound implications for agriculture, urban water management, and ecosystem sustainability, stressing the need for dynamic and region-specific adaptation measures. This study emphasizes the critical role of localized factors, such as topography, land use, and basin-specific characteristics, in influencing the hydrological cycle under changing climatic conditions.
KW - climate change adaptation
KW - hydrological modeling
KW - multi-model ensemble (MME)
KW - Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)
KW - seasonal and monthly variability
KW - South Korea River Basins
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85185707028&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/w16040555
DO - 10.3390/w16040555
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85185707028
SN - 2073-4441
VL - 16
JO - Water (Switzerland)
JF - Water (Switzerland)
IS - 4
M1 - 555
ER -