Timing choice and catch-up strategy for latecomers in emerging green technologies: An exploration study on China's high-speed rail industry

To catch up with the forerunners, emerging countries such as China recently concentrate on the development of emerging green technologies. Choosing the appropriate entry timing and undertaking suitable strategies are important for the latecomers to catch up in the emerging green technologies. Using the Abernathy and Utterback model, based on the resource-based theory, this paper explores the timing choice mechanism and catch-up strategy for latecomers through the theoretical analysis and case study of China's high-speed rail industry. The main findings are as follows. First, firms in emerging countries with forerunner advantages should implement technology breakthrough-oriented catch-up strategies in the fluid stages of emerging green technologies to achieve technology monopoly and market lead. Second, latecomers with relatively weak resources should enter emerging green technology in the transitional stages and seize the “window of opportunity” around the arising dominant technology design. The appropriate catch-up strategy is market expansion, which can be executed by focusing on process and business model innovation to capture green market segments. Third, given that latecomers accumulate abundant catch-up resources, earlier entries into emerging green industries result in high likelihood of catching up with the forerunners.